Presidential Elections in Lebanon are always complicated to understand. People of the region are preparing for presidential elections in Lebanon. Now candidates are going to contest for the presidential campaign. The candidates are familiar with the significance of local parties. These local players are, however working on the directions of their regional masters. Presidential candidates are fully aware of the importance of Trump’s hawkish stance on Iran and Hezbollah. The role of Iran and Hezbollah can also not be ignored.
Suleiman Franjieh is a pro-Syrian candidate for the presidency of Lebanon. However, the staunch stance of the Western world against Syria can create hurdles for him. Another leading candidate is Gibran Bassil He is son in law of Current president Michel Aoun and holds foreign minister’s slot. Both Aoun and Bassil are supporters of Hezbollah and Iran. President Aoun’s tenure will end in 2022. However, will the USA and allies accept another pro-Hezbollah president?. A question which is still debatable.
The hawkish stance of Trump administration indicates that the USA will not endorse a pro-Hezbollah president. It seems that Lebanon’s relations with the west will get deteriorated if Lebanon elects a pro-Hezbollah president. Bassil’s Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah were allies in Parliamentary elections of 2018. Bassil also took some steps to show his neutrality. For example, He did not show any interest in visiting Damascus as a foreign minister.
Bassil has created a strong lobby in Washington. However, the current US administration is reluctant in supporting Bassil. Recently Congressman Eliot Engel visited Lebanon. Bassil warmly welcomed him. Currently, Engel is the chairperson of the House Foreign Affairs committee. Mr. Engel is known as a pro-Israel person. He played an essential role in passing anti-Syria legislation in 2004.
Also, Senator Tim Kaine recently received a welcome in Lebanese embassy in Washington. Mr. Kaine was the running mate of Hillary Clinton. All this is being done to create a positive image of Bassil in Washington. It seems that Democrats are primary targets of Bassil’s lobby. However, in Lebanon, the FPM and media are continuously criticizing the US role in Syria and are also defending Hezbollah.
The Republican administration is more interested in supporting General Joseph Aoun. He is an army commander and seen as a popular candidate for the presidency. The same commander received a warm welcome by Trump administration. US administration ensured full commander support for the Lebanese army. However, Lebanon’s embassy in Washington showed a cold behavior towards General Aoun.
Hezbollah is trying to defame the US assistance program in Lebanon. It seems that Hezbollah does not want General Aoun as president. Bassil and allies proposed a reduction in the defense budget of 2019-20. It appears to be between Hezbollah and the Lebanese army officially. The current parliament is facing some economic problems. The alliance between Hezbollah and FPM have no clear vision on economic reforms. FPM is aware of the fact that alliance with Hezbollah can create anger for Lebanon in the USA and Saudi Arabia.
Prime minister of Lebanon Saad Hariri is also supporting General Aoun. Current President Michel Aoun signed a political agreement with Hezbollah in 2006. This agreement helped Michel Aoun to win the presidential race in 2016. Similarly, Hezbollah will play an important role in the next presidential elections.
Both Bassil and General Aoun need to have a transparent approach towards Hezbollah. The next president should avoid confrontation. We can hope that presidential elections in Lebanon will create a balance between Hezbollah, Iran, and the USA.
