This year’s starting pitcher trade market is a bit perplexing. From the names that are reportedly available, no one is a ‘must-have.’ That is unless the New York Mets make Jacob deGrom available. Then all bets are off because there would be a bidding war for the ace. But, under-the-radar, Nathan Eovaldi of the Tampa Bay Rays is starting to make a name for himself and turning himself into a valuable trade asset for the franchise.
The 28-year-old has always had talent, since coming up as a fresh-faced 21-year-old with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Armed with a five-pitch arsenal: powerful fastball, hard slider and sinker, changeup, and curveball, the potential was high. But he never was able to put it all together. He had flashes of brilliance, but consistency was not his strong suit.
He has a career 4.16 ERA and a 1.346 WHIP, neither of which stand out as good, and at one point had a 4.91 ERA this year. But this year, albeit in 48.1 innings, Eovaldi has looked like a different pitcher entirely. He had Tommy John surgery in 2016, missed all of 2017, and made his season debut on May 30, and looked exceptionally sharp, throwing six no-hit innings.
But then, he struggled the next four starts. However, in his three starts since June 26, he has turned things around, once flirting with perfection in one start and another no-hitter in the other. His season numbers stand at a 3.35, 0.81 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts in 48.1 innings. But more impressively, the righty has allowed just six walks (3.3 BB%).
The average fastball velocity for his career is 96.9 mph, and it is up to 97.4 mph, and being as high as 97.9 mph as recently as 2016 before his injury. Eovaldi’s slider is still hard, and in fact, his curveball has also increased in speed. He is turning into a nice pitcher for the Rays, and someone they can flip into additional assets to boost their rebuild.
The big question is whether Eovaldi is the best pitcher on the market right now. That is a tough question to answer because the market has not fully developed yet. J.A. Happ is expected to be dealt; Cole Hamels is speculated to be available, maybe a Jake Odorizzi, perhaps a Tyson Ross. Each has a claim to being the best available (except Odorizzi), which goes to show how the market isn’t exactly showered with elite arms.
Quality mid-rotation arm, but not frontline. If Eovaldi continues to pitch the way he is, then he may just be the best available, and the Rays will be getting a handful of phone calls.
However, the question is whether this success is legitimate. Eovaldi’s been lights-out the past three starts, but allow me to play devil’s advocate quickly. Eovaldi is no front-line arm. First, his numbers are not elite, and some metrics point to some fortune in his case.
For a guy who throws hard, he can’t miss bats at the rate you would expect. He has a career-high 8.2 K/9 this year but a below average 24.3 K%. This means that most of his outs are coming when the ball is put in play, and his batting average on balls in play allowed is just .198, showing he has been very fortunate. If he were a guy that generated lots of soft contact, that number would paint a different picture.
But he is not an elite groundball pitcher, and his hard-hit rate of 37.2% is above the MLB-average of 34.1%. Hitters are barrel rate of 8.5%, which is above the league-average 6.1%. He is allowing a career-worst 1.7 home runs every nine innings, which is double his career’s average.
His four best starts came against three struggling teams and a middling Oakland A’s team that was 28-28 and had yet to take off. His four worst came against three of the four best teams in the AL and a hot Washington Nationals ballclub. And because of his track record or lack thereof, it would be silly to jump fully onto the bandwagon.
However, he is a different pitcher today than he was in the past. He is commanding his pitches better like never before. He is a strike-throwing machine, second best among starters with a minimum of 40 innings thrown, according to FanGraphs. He also has the second-best chase rate among starters with a minimum 40 innings thrown.
His usage of the cutter has skyrocketed, while the four-seamer and slider have decreased, and Eovaldi has eliminated his changeup and sinker while replacing them with his split-finger change. Hitters now have to be mindful of additional pitches with high velocity. And to make them more effective, at least the fastballs, the 28-year-old is adapting to the times and throwing the heaters higher in the zone.
So Nathan Eovaldi may not be an ace, or a number two starter, but for a playoff team looking for additional starting pitching like the Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, or New York Yankees, he would slot in perfectly into the number three or four spot. He would add additional depth and quality, and the Rays must capitalize.
Eovaldi would fetch a Rays a haul they can use to assist the rebuild. Nothing elite, but a solid prospect or two. He has the talent, and while he may never live up to the tremendous potential he once had, he is closer to the pitcher we are seeing right now, compared to what we’ve seen in previous years.
Featured Image via Flickr/ Tampa Bay Times
