When the Cincinnati Reds traded for Eugenio Suarez from the Detroit Tigers, they probably expected a solid-to-good (at best) starting infielder on the left side. He was not known for his bat, but rather his glove at shortstop. He came over along with a former first-round pitcher (who has not quite made it yet) for veteran pitcher Alfredo Simon after the 2014 season, and boy, that trade is looking like a massive steal for the Reds.
He never had the pedigree or hoopla or a high-touted prospect, never making Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects. Never had power or the hit tool to turn any heads. He was regarded as a good defensive player, and that’s it. But he’s made waves since coming to Ohio.
2017 saw him have his best season up until that point, and it a pretty good one. He had a .828 with 26 home runs and 25 doubles while grading out as one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, constituting of somewhat of a breakout season. In turn, the Reds rewarded him with a six-year $66 million contract extension, with a club option for a seventh year worth $15 million.
But 2018 has put all that to shame so far. Suarez is having a breakout season, making the All-Star game for the first time in his young career. He is hitting .312/.399/.573 with 19 home runs and 17 doubles, on pace to shatter last season’s numbers. He also has a 3.6 WAR and 160 OPS+, which have helped the Reds score the seventh-most runs in the game.
Among players you can consider full-time third baseman (sorry Max Muncy), Suarez has the second-highest OPS, second in home runs, second in wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) and has the best wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus). He is arguably the best offensive third baseman this season, which is impressive considering the depth of quality at the hot corner around the league.
And he is not having a fluke of a season. Expecting elite production at this rate was fair to question, but some improvement was expected. He was (and still is) young and showed ability. The Reds gave him that contract for a reason.
And his numbers have been legitimate. Suarez is courtesy of Baseball Savant, top-7% in the National League with a 47.9% hard-hit rate (league’s average is 34.1%), and has combined that with an average launch angle of 14.6 degrees (league’s average is 11.8 degrees.). That is an excellent recipe for success.
Many players elevate the ball a lot but do not make the necessary contact needed to make it an asset, while others hit it hard, but keep the ball low, preventing it from doing the damage it should be making.
Suarez is doing both well, which has led to deserved results. He has an ‘expected batting average’ of .303 and an ‘expected slugging percentage’ of .583 and, as mentioned earlier, one of the best WOBA of .409.
The expected batting average and expected slugging percentage do a good job of estimating what the respective player’s batting average and slugging percentage should be by comparing the exit velocity and launch angle of each ball in play and estimating the hit probability compared to a ball with similar contact and flight. It’s not perfect, yet, but you can argue it’s more telling than the standard batting average statistic.
And wOBA attempts to combine all our favorite batting statistics (batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, etc.) and combine them into one more telling stat. Its goal is to be a more definitive stat that OPS.
His surface numbers are excellent, as are the deep-down metrics. Neither are perfect, but when you combine them, you get the best possible painted picture one can have. He’s excelling in both, which should tell you something.
He’s come a long way from being untouted to being one of the best offensive players in the sport of baseball. He turns 26 this week, still relatively young, so he may still be getting better. His defense has taken a step back this season, but once he shores it up, he can be in the conversation as one of the best players in the game.
But for now, Reds fans don’t mind settling for breakout star blossoming into an elite player. That contract extension has him locked up through his best years, and it is starting to look like a bargain.
Featured Image via Flickr/Hayden Schiff
