The current Sudan crisis started when peaceful protests lead to the ouster of former president Bashir. The Transition Military council was framed to peacefully transfer power to civilian representatives. However, Sudan crisis gained pace after TMC adopted undemocratic moves to crush the protesters. Experts are warning that Sudan crisis can grow if the international community maintains silence over this issue.

On June 3, 2019 Sudanese army launched strikes on protesters. Protesters were protesting outside the Defense Ministry of Sudan. This offensive by the Sudanese army is a clear example of political turmoil in Sudan. As a result of this offensive, more than 30 people were dead and hundreds are injured. This offense is a clear proof of rising tensions between the deep state elements and peaceful protesters.

photo via picserver.org

This military offensive against the protesters was not unexpected. Unfortunately, the people who are running the State’s affairs were involved in military operations in the vicinity of Sudan. The Transition Military Council (TMC) was established after the ouster of former president Omar Hassan al Bashir. But TMC seems to run the affairs of Sudan via undemocratic way.

Experts opine that the hard behavior of TMC is a result of a recent meeting between TMC officials and its allies Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. Political experts resemble current events with those occurred in Egypt after 2013. Also, TMC forcefully closed the offices of an international media outlet in Khartoum.

Alamart_41_th_Street_Khartoum – Photo via wikimedia.org

The international community is also paying a deaf ear to the current situation in Sudan. Meanwhile, few western ambassadors and diplomats censured these events. However, no pragmatic steps are visible from west till now. This negligence is further intensifying the situation. Currently, there are local powers who have a strong influence in Sudan. These local powers are supporting the Sudan’s military.

If the current situation prevails in the Sudanese army will extend its operation against the protesters across the country. The army will for protesters to withdraw their demands. In this scenario, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt are solidifying their support for the Sudanese military. If the offensives by army continue, Sudan may become another Syria. A distrust between TMC and protesters can lead to a civil war situation.

The recent turmoil indicates the deadlock in negotiations between TMC and oppositions. The use of force by TMC can harm the dialogue process. On the other hand, the protesters are also not afraid of these military raids. Now many circles of these protesters are calling for TMC’s dissolution. It seems that the deep state elements in Sudan don’t want civilian supremacy in the country.

Khartoum – Photo via flickr.com

By recent crackdown, the TMC has clearly shown that it will conduct the ‘transition’ on its own terms and conditions. These tensions between TMC and protesters may result in the intensification radicalization of Sudan. In Syria, Egypt, and Libya we have witnessed the violent protesters and civil wars. The use of force against the protesters created chaos in these countries which still continue. Similarly, if TMC continues its hawkish approach towards protesters there are certain chances that this peaceful campaign may be turned into a violent struggle.

UAE, KSA, and Egypt should also watch and decide what they should do to avoid clashes in Sudan. These Arab countries are part of civil unrest in Syria and Yemen, so they should avoid doing the same in Sudan. The clear support for TMC can become dangerous for these countries too. Their unwavering support can push Sudan into a civil war, which is not beneficial for any party, including Egypt, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Here the international community should also monitor the situation and should settle a roadmap of peaceful transition. The negligence of the international community will just give the world another civil war. The United Nations and other stakeholders should clearly devise a mechanism acceptable by both the TMC and opposition. This is the only way forward  to the current turmoil in Sudan.