Photo via wikimedia.org

Sudan’s revolution was considered as a gateway to democracy in the country. However, TMC has become another hurdle for Sudan revolution. This article covers the future prospects of Sudan revolution. The ultimate and long term impacts of Sudan revolution are still awaited.

June 3 incident of Sudan is not new of its kind. The democratic spring seems to be falling down. Now there is a deadlock between the Transition Military Council and Protesters. This deadlock is not serving any party, but hawks of dictatorship. The main party of TMC is “Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF)”. It consists of various factions of Sudanese opposition. DFCF claims that it is the only representative of Sudanese opposition. Sudanese TMC accepted DFCF’s claim in hesitation. Due to the pressure of protesters, TMC accepted many demands of DFCF. However, TMC is reluctant in handing over power solely to DFCF. The main cause of impasse is the presidential council. Both TMC and DFCF want more control over the presidency. Later, both the parties agreed on the formation of the third council, namely national security council to be completely controlled by the military. It was expected that both the parties are moving towards successful negotiations.

Image by Juliette Kober from Pixabay 

In the last week of May 2019, TMC’s deputy chairman General Hamdan Dagalo (nicknamed as Hemeti) visited Saudi Arabia. He was given a very warm welcome in Saudi Arabia. This glorious reception by Saudi Arabia seems to have changed his mind. After that visit, we observed a hawkish approach by TMC. Meanwhile, the details of this visit are still hidden. General Hamdan is head of Rapid Response Forces (RSF). RSF was responsible for genocide in Darfur from 2003 to 2006. RSF mainly consists of Arab-African fighters.
In 2011 South Sudan gained independence. It also took with it more than 60 percent oil reserves. In 2012 the then president Bashir unveiled a coup planted by junior rank officers of Islamist core. In the same year, Sudan faced massive protests. These protests went violent and Capital Khartoum also hit by protesters. The state used massive force to stop the protesters. More than 150 people were killed in a week.
In 2014 tribal leader and former boss of General Hamdan, Musa Hilal opted for rebellion against the regime and started militant struggle in Darfur. In the same year, President Bashir invited all political entities for dialogues. Former president Bashir tried to appease General Hamdan by promoting him. He was also given financial support. In return, General Hamdan or Hemeti agreed to deploy RSF brigade in Khartoum. In 2017 RSF also successfully captured Musa Hilal, who is still in prison.

Government militia in Darfur – Photo via wikimedia.org

In 2015 Sudan decided to be a part of the Saudi coalition in Yemen. The most of the fighters employed from Hemeti’s RSF. At the same time, Hemeti established friendly relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE. After the removal of president Bashir General Burhan assumed the Chairmanship of TMC and Hemeti became the Deputy Chairman. Here it may be noted that General Burhan was the in charge of Sudanese contingent, which joined the Saudi coalition in 2015. Many experts believe that Hemeti holds more power than General Burhan. Hemeti’s influence on Sudan was the main reason behind the Saudi’s invitation. Both the key leaders of TMC have visited Egypt and the UAE. Experts believe that these visits are significant because Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and UAE want dictatorial and strong government in Sudan. After these visits, Hemeti adopted a hawkish approach. Talks were stopped and the protesters were called a threat to national security.

Similarly, DFCF was termed as not the only representative of the revolutionary movement. TMC accused DFCF as a body which just wants power in any case. TMC has also threatened to abolish previous negotiations. These events lead to what happened on June 3, 2019. The crackdown was conducted on protesters in various cities. More than 50 people were killed in current raids and hundreds  injured. RSF carried out these raids. Sudanese intelligence also helped RSF in doing so. These raids questioned the credibility and non-seriousness of TMC. The military has no more support in public. The roads and transport facilities are blocked by the military. The internet and other ways of communications are also taken away from citizens. It seems that a civil war is knocking at the doors of Sudan.

Tuti Bridge Khartoum – Photo via flickr.com

While the whole world is condemning these raids Saudi Arabia became the first country who is supporting TMC’s aggression. Now UAE and Egypt have also joined the race. Besides these events, the economy of Sudan is also going down. It will be difficult for the new government to govern the country. However, it is also unclear whether the new government will be civilian or military. Also, the disunity within the army can also be a problem. Many circles of army believe that RSF’s acts are defaming the entire army. They are also worried about RSF’s increasing role in army administration. This unrest in the military can also push Sudan into civil war.

Considering all these factors, we can say that the State of Sudan is facing threats of disintegration and civil war. The June 3 events have further propelled these dangers.
The only way forward is the broad spectrum dialogue and an immediate and intense international political pressure. The international community and UNO should urge Sudan’s TMC to refrain from using force. The African Union can also play an important role in devising a future road map. Only this can stop Sudan from further divisions and catastrophe.