The American League MVP race is a fun one, with the four best candidates having elite seasons and all being worthy. J.D. Martinez leads the AL in two of the three Triple Crown Categories (home runs and RBI), Jose Ramirez has been spectacular overall and has the second-most home runs in the game, and Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and arguably the greatest talent ever, who was tracking to have the best season of his career. Yet, the AL MVP is Mookie Betts’ to lose.
It’s largely because he has a handful of things working strongly in his favor. First off, and most importantly, the right-fielder is having a season for the ages. After a disappointing 2017, the 25-year-old is putting it all together and making his excellent 2016 look ‘OK.’
Betts is hitting .350/.438/.668 with 27 homers and 23 stolen bases. He leads all of baseball in batting average, second in on-base percentage, second in slugging (by just .001), and first in OPS (the only guy to have one over 1.100 as of this writing).
He leads MLB with a .458 wOBA and 192 wRC+, which are both spectacular, along with a 193 OPS+ (second behind Trout). Betts also leads all of baseball with an 8.0 WAR, which is considered MVP-level and he still has around 40 games to play.
Perhaps Mookie’s most impressive stat is that he has not had a monthly OPS below .883 in 2018. His next lowest is an elite .973, while the other three months are 1.200 or higher.
Betts is walking 12.6% of the time compared to striking out just 13.4% of the time, which comes out to a .94 BB: K ratio which is hard to find nowadays, and it’s something that will work in his favor with the MVP voters. Save for a single DL stint; nothing has gone wrong for the superstar; that’s how great this year has been.
What also works for Mookie Betts is that he’s the best player, having perhaps the best season of anyone in the league, on the MLB’s best team. Even better than teammate J.D. Martinez, who is just as responsible for the Red Sox having the best offense in the sport.
J.D. leads the league with 37 homers and 104 RBI. But the overall power numbers are virtually tied with Betts and Martinez does not get on base on as much as his teammate. And the RBI stat is a terrible one, even though voters like it.
Not to mention, Martinez plays mostly as the Red Sox’s designated hitter, and no DH has ever won the award because they don’t affect the game in enough phases except at the plate. And when he is in the field, he’s a lousy defender. Whereas, Mookie is playing outstanding defense.
To boil it down between the two, Mookie is, at worst, the same at the plate as Martinez, but effects the game in more places (defense and basepaths) and does so positively.
Mike Trout was on pace to win the award, or at least be the favorite because he was on pace to have the best season of anyone, and his best season ever. But the center fielder hasn’t played since August 1 due to a jammed wrist, and before going onto the DL, he was playing through it, which was hurting his numbers.
And now Trout may not even make it back once he’s eligible to come off the DL because of a personal family matter, so he’s losing games that he could have been using to make up ground. This is where Betts has to separate himself from Trout. Betts can rack up the counting stats while widening the gap in WAR.
So now, Mookie’s most significant threat for the MVP may be the Indians’ Jose Ramirez, who we all have to realize flat-out special. No other way to put it. The third baseman is hitting .301/.412/.631 with 35 home runs and 27 stolen bases.
You can’t go wrong with either, but the Red Sox are amid a historic season and are easily the best team in the league. But at the same time, Mookie Betts is putting his ridiculous numbers while playing in an extremely hitter-friendly park, unlike Ramirez, who plays at Progressive field that is considered neutral.
But all things equal, Mookie Betts should be the favorite to win the American League MVP because he is having the best overall season in 2018 and is playing on the game’s best team, while his competitors have things working against them. The MVP race is a four-headed race, and with all of them having MVP-caliber seasons, but it’s quite frankly Betts’ to lose.
Featured Image via Flick/apardavila
