Libyan turmoil was started 8 years ago. The Libyan turmoil and anarchy started as a result of Arab spring and after the ouster of former dictator Gaddafi. The Libyan turmoil has become intense in the last two months. In Tripoli battle, more than 500 people have been killed. About 2000 people are injured and thousands have been displaced. Infrastructure has also been completely destroyed. Cities are under consistent threat of militarization.
Besides this, over 2.5 million people are besieged in Tripoli. Experts say no one appears victorious in this war. Government of National Accord (GNA) has successfully stopped Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) from entering in Tripoli. However, Haftar is still a big threat to GNA. On its part, the United Nations has called for restraining but both the sides are not paying any attention to UNO. It seems capital is more important than the entire country for these two parties. UN’s security council is also unable to play any role because of the dual behavior of France in Libya.
Now, the main question is what can be the future? Will Libyans achieve a political settlement or again a military dictatorship?. UNO has tried its best to place political entities on board. When Haftar tried to move his forces in Tripoli UNO requested him to resolve the issue via peaceful negotiations. UNO arranged a National Conference in Ghadamas. In this conference, all the stakeholders were invited. This conference was canceled when Haftar started invasion in Tripoli. It seems that both parties do not want UNO’s mediation.
GNA’s leader Fayez Siraj has accused General Haftar of deceiving him. He claimed that Haftar was never serious in dialogues. The Same are the views of Haftar about GNA. It seems that both parties want to control Libya in a dictatorial style. Haftar’s stance is stricter. He clearly refused all the mediation offers by UNO. He strongly opposed the involvement of the third party in Libya. In these circumstances, the political solution is the only solution. But before that, there should be an end to this ongoing war.
Unfortunately, political settlement seems impossible in the current situation. It seems that peace will be achieved when any side will appear as victorious militarily. However, will that military solution work? It is a question which Libyans are still asking. Many regional and international players are also trying to go for a military solution of Libyan turmoil. Both LNA and GNA are getting support from their foreign masterminds. This support is both in financial and in the military domain.
Now if Khalifa Haftar succeeds it means Libya will eventually go to a situation which it faced under Colonel Gaddafi. Currently, Khalifa Haftar has the support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. A political solution is possible if the UN-backed government succeeds in pushing back Haftar’s forces. A weak Haftar will be easy to bring on the negotiation table. However, currently, Khalifa Haftar is not a weak man.
Experts believe that the current fight around Tripoli is the beginning of a long term war. In this scenario, only the international community can play its sincere role or else Libyans will keep on suffering. At first arm support to militants should be stopped immediately. UN should also bring Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the table to conclude a political settlement. Saudi Arabia should have been asked to use its influence on Khalifa Haftar to bring him on the negotiation table. The neighbors of Libya should also play their role in stabilizing the country. Because if this turmoil continues, the neighboring countries will also have to face a refugee crisis. So a timely political rapprochement is beneficial for all.
